By the end of 2025, the solar foreign trade sector will undergo significant policy adjustments. The Chinese Ministry of Finance and State Administration of Taxation jointly announced that the tax rebate for solar solar cell products will be reduced from 9% to 6%, and will be fully cancelled from April 1, 2026. The implementation of this policy marks the official end of the era of solar export tax rebates that has been in effect for over 12 years, and will profoundly reshape the global pattern of China's solar industry going global.
Policy Shift: An Inevitable Choice from "Blood Transfusion" to "Hematogenesis"
The export tax rebate policy for solar began in 2013, when China's solar industry had just experienced a heavy blow from the European and American "double anti" investigations and was in a difficult period of recovery. The high proportion of 13% export tax rebate is like a "timely rain". By refunding the value-added tax in the domestic production process, it effectively reduces the export cost of enterprises and helps Chinese solar products seize the global market at highly competitive prices. With policy support, China's solar industry has achieved leapfrog development and now holds over 70% of the global market share, establishing global advantages in technology, cost, production capacity, and supply chain.
But as the industry matures, the side effects of this support policy gradually become apparent. In recent years, some enterprises have fallen into the dilemma of "internal competition and external competition" due to low prices and disorderly competition. They directly convert export tax rebates into bargaining space to benefit overseas buyers, resulting in disguised financial subsidies flowing into overseas markets and triggering the risk of anti subsidy and anti-dumping investigations in multiple countries. Data shows that from January to October 2025, the export value of China's solar products decreased by 13.2% year-on-year, showing a trend of "increasing quantity and decreasing price". Component prices fell to around $0.080/W at one point, making it difficult for companies to even cover operating costs.
The cancellation of export tax rebates is a strategic adjustment based on the stage of industrial development, "said the person in charge of the Solar solar Products Branch of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Mechanical and Electrical Products. Currently, China's solar industry has the strength to independently participate in global competition, and policies have shifted from" blood transfusion style "support to" hematopoietic style "coercion. This is not only a guide for the industry to get rid of the quagmire of price wars, but also an inevitable choice to promote the industry to advance towards high-quality development.
Industry shock: short-term pains intertwined with long-term changes
After the policy was released, the solar industry quickly triggered a chain reaction. In the short term, the export cost of enterprises will directly increase. Some solar industry insiders estimate that the export profit of each 210mm module will decrease by 46-51 yuan, and the export gross profit margin will be further compressed. In order to lock in the tax rebate dividend before April 1st, domestic solar manufacturers have generally increased their production scheduling efforts. Many factories have cancelled the Spring Festival holiday and are fully rushing to meet orders. The logistics side is also preparing in advance for the "rush to ship".
Overseas markets are also feeling pressure. According to the analysis of some leaders of solar brand companies, the cancellation of export tax rebates may lead to a decline in demand in some overseas markets. The internal rate of return of solar projects in countries such as Greece is already less than 6%, and the cancellation of tax rebates will directly affect investment expectations. The Indian solar industry is even more anxious, as its local solar cell production capacity can only meet 30% of demand. The cancellation of China's tax rebate has led to a 14% -18% increase in module costs, directly impacting India's goal of 500GW of non fossil energy.
But behind the short-term pains, the dawn of industry transformation has emerged. The China solar Industry Association stated that canceling export tax rebates will promote the rational return of foreign market prices, reduce the risk of trade frictions, and accelerate industry integration. Small and medium-sized enterprises that relied on tax refunds to fight price wars in the past will gradually be eliminated, while top enterprises will further enhance market concentration by leveraging their technological, scale, and brand advantages. The industry expects that the focus of competition in the future will shift from "price wars" to "technology wars" and "brand wars", HJT、 New technologies such as perovskite will become the core competitiveness for enterprises to break through.
Enterprise transformation: from "product going global" to "value going global"
Faced with policy adjustments, solar companies are accelerating their efforts to seek change. Many leading companies have turned their attention to overseas production capacity layout, by establishing production bases in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and other places to avoid trade barriers and cost pressures. The head of a leading enterprise stated that the company plans to increase the proportion of overseas production capacity to 30% in the next three years, achieving a leap from "product output" to "production capacity output" and "technology output".
Digitization and branding have also become the key to breaking through for enterprises. PWSOLAR has also established a localized brand image through content marketing on overseas media platforms such as TikTok and LinkedIn. Since 2026, orders in emerging markets have increased by over 50% year-on-year. Some companies have increased their R&D investment and launched high-efficiency component products with a conversion efficiency exceeding 26%. With a technology premium, they are priced 15% higher than similar products in the European market and still maintain a stable order volume.
Cancelling tax refunds is not the end point, but a new starting point for the upgrading of China's solar industry, "PWSOLAR has always believed. In the past, Chinese solars relied on low prices to increase production, but in the future, they will rely on technology and brands to establish themselves in the global market. This policy adjustment will ultimately drive China's solar industry to bid farewell to "internal competition and external transformation" and occupy a more central voice in the global new energy track.
Future prospects: Building a new ecosystem for solar foreign trade
Looking ahead to the second half of 2026, the solar industry will still face many challenges. After the second quarter, the export volume may decline by 5% -10%, and the profits of top enterprises will also be under pressure, but the overall direction of high-quality development in the industry is irreversible. The Ministry of Commerce stated that it will continue to improve its foreign trade support policies, guide solar enterprises to expand their markets through new models such as cross-border e-commerce and overseas warehouses, and actively participate in the formulation of global new energy standards, creating a more stable international environment for China's solar industry to go global.
For solar companies, only by actively embracing change can they stand firm in the new competitive landscape. In the future, enterprises that can achieve technological breakthroughs, build global production capacity layouts, and establish well-known brands will become the leaders of the new ecosystem of solar foreign trade. And China's solar industry will also truly embark on a new journey of high-quality overseas development in the pain and transformation of bidding farewell to the era of tax refunds. PWSOLAR, as a leader in China's solar industry, will also forge ahead and push high-quality products to every corner of the earth, illuminating a better life. POWER WORLD, POWER YOUR LIFE.
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